Projection – Republicans 51, Democrats 49
Current Senate make-up- Democrat 55 (including 2 independents), Republican 45.
Seats not up for re-election – Democrat 34, Republican 30.
Safe Democrat (6)- Delaware, Hawaii*, Illinois*, Massachusetts*, New Jersey*, Rhode Island*
Lean Democrat (4)- Minnesota*, Oregon*, New Mexico*, Virginia*,
Slight Lean Democrat (3)- Michigan, New Hampshire*, North Carolina*
Toss-up (3) – Colorado*, Iowa, Kansas*
Slight Lean Republican (5) – Alaska*, Arkansas*, Louisiana*, Georgia, Kentucky*,
Lean Republican (3) - Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia
Safe Republican (12)- Alabama*, Idaho*, Maine, Mississippi*, Nebraska, Oklahoma (2), South Carolina (2)*, Tennessee*, Texas*, Wyoming*
*Denotes incumbent is running
Georgia – Michelle Nunn has gained on David Perdue in just about every poll taken over the past month. If the Election were held today Perdue would have a hard time reaching 50% and avoiding a run-off. The problem for Nunn is that even if she beats Perdue on Election Day she will still likely fall short of 50%
South Dakota – Two polls show Republican favorite Mike Rounds leading by only three points. The only problem for Democrats is that each of the polls showed a different candidate running second. Mike Rounds is still a solid favorite.
Alaska – Dan Sullivan is now leading Mark Begich by nearly five points in the Real Clear Politics average. Given Alaska’s history of under-polling Republicans, this race is looking very good for the GOP.
Colorado – Cory Gardner has solidified his position as the polling favorite with two polls showing him leading by six points.
New Hampshire – Scott Brown posted his first lead, but still faces an uphill battle.
New Hampshire – Scott Brown took a lead in one poll, but still faces an uphill battle.
North Carolina – Thom Tillis finally halted his slide and has pulled to within two points.
Races most likely to change parties:
1. Montana (95%) Polls, candidate, environment, and terrain favor GOP.
2. West Virginia (90%) Polls, candidate, environment, and terrain favor GOP.
3. South Dakota (80%) Polls, environment, and terrain favor GOP.
4. Alaska (70%) Terrain and environment favor GOP. Solid Democratic incumbent.
5. Louisiana (60%) Terrain and environment favor GOP. Solid Democratic incumbent. Looks like a December run-off.
6. Arkansas (55%) Terrain and environment favor GOP. Strong Democratic incumbent.
7. Iowa (55%) Republicans got their candidate. Terrain slightly favors Democrats, while environment slightly favors Republicans.
8. Colorado (55%) Terrain slightly favors Democrats. Environment favors GOP. GOP may have better candidate.
9. Kansas (45%) Terrain favors GOP. State environment favors the Independent. Candidates both have vulnerabilities
10. North Carolina (45%) Terrain and environment slightly favor GOP. Mediocre Democratic incumbent, fractured GOP. Republican candidate has very high unfavorables.
11. New Hampshire (40%) Terrain and candidates favors Democrats.
12. Georgia (40%) Terrain and environment favor GOP. Solid Democratic candidate performing well in polls, but unlikely to win run-off.
13. Kentucky (35%) Terrain and environment favor GOP.
14. Michigan (20%) Terrain favors Democrats. Environment slightly favors Republicans. Democrat is starting to build a small but consistent lead.
15. Minnesota (5%) Terrain and candidates favors Democrats.
16. Virginia (5%) Terrain and candidates favors Democrats.