Weekly public opinion wrap 5/12/13

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Presidential approval

Rasmussen – The President had three straight days at 48%, but finished the week by hitting the 50% benchmark three days in a row. His negative index slid into single digits, which was his best showing in three weeks.

Gallup – The President dropped about half of a point on average for the week as he was just below 50% four out of seven days.

Pew – The President’s approval improved noticeably as he moved back over 50%. His 51/43 positive spread marks a seven point net improvement from Pew’s 47/46 March survey.  A strong majority of Americans, however, believe that the country is on the wrong track (32/56).

Obama (Pew)

  • Able to get things done 49/46 (57/37)
  • Strong leader 56/40 (59/37)
  • Stands up for what he believes in 76/19 (82/14)
  • Fights hard to get his policies passed 67/25

Congressional approval (Pew)

  • Republican leaders in Congress 22/68 (25/67)
  • Democratic leader in Congress 32/59 (37/55)

Party preference (Pew)

  • Guns – Republicans 42, Democrats 39
  • Immigration – Democrats 38, Republicans 38
  • Economy – Republican 42, Democrats 38

Massachusetts Senate

Suffolk – Markey 52, Gomez 35

  • Markey favorability – 53/30
  • Gomez favorability – 38/23

WBUR/Mass Inc – Markey 46, Gomez 38

  • Markey favorability – 43/25
  • Gomez favorability – 37/16

Virginia Governor

Marist/NBC – Cuccinelli 45, McAuliffe 42

  • McAuliffe favorability – 32/24 (Independents 24/25)
  • Cuccinelli favorability – 42/27 (Independents 38/26)
  • Closer to your position on abortion – Cuccinelli 31, McAuliffe 30
  • Cuccinelli as VA Attorney General – Approve 51, Disapprove 24
  • Governor McDonnell – Approve 61, Disapprove 24
  • 2016 – Hillary Clinton 52, Bob McDonnell 41
  • 2016 – Bob McDonnell 49, Joe Biden 42

Generic ballot 

Rasmussen– Democrats 40, Republicans 38. Trend D+3.

Mid-week politics update 5/9/13

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News

Sanford defeats Colbert Busch
How Sanford pulled off the upset
Controversy at the Heritage Foundation
Senate Republicans move towards immigration reform
President uses Texas as example of economic success

Massachusetts Senate Analysis

Nate Silver – Gomez is definite underdog, but still has fair chance to win.
Sean Trende – National mood makes it difficult for Gomez to pull upset
 
Polls

Presidential Approval

Rasmussen – Approve 48, Disapprove 50
Gallup – Approve 49, Disapprove 45
Pew – Approve 51, Disapprove 43

Virginia Governor

Marist – Cuccinelli 45, McAuliffe 42

New Jersey Governor

Marist – Christie 62, Buono 28

Massachusetts Senate

Suffolk – Markey 52, Gomez 35

Generic Ballot

Rasmussen Reports –  Democrats 40, Republican 38
Quinnipiac – Democrats 41, Republicans 37

Cuccinelli and McAuliffe go on the air in Virginia

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The gubernatorial race in Virginia is now fully underway as both Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe and Republican candidate Ken Cuccinelli have aired their first television ads. Keeping with proper political form, both candidates open with soft biographical pieces. McAuliffe makes sure voters know that he has been a Virginian for over 20 years – an early attempt to diffuse the carpetbagger claim, while Cuccinelli concludes his ad promising to be honest and principled – a subtle indicator that his Democratic opponent is neither honest nor principled.

Virginia residents should enjoy the soft ads now because the race will likely be one of the nastiest the state has seen. McAuliffe’s main gambit will be to convince voters that Cuccinelli is a smoother talking, better educated Todd Akin. Cuccinelli is likely to direct his attacks at McAuliffe’s character. Expect to hear the term “used car salesman” more than once while describing McAuliffe.

Republicans control Mark Sanford’s fate in South Carolina special election

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The three recent polls in South Carolina’s first Congressional District have one thing in common. The higher Republican turnout is, the better Mark Sanford performs. While this does not sound like a startling revelation, the election will hinge almost exclusively on whether or not Mark Sanford can turn out an electorate similar to Mitt Romney’s in 2012.

In 2012, Mitt Romney won the district by 18 points, which was a 22 points better than his  national performance (-4). Sanford’s scandal and ongoing drama will likely hurt him among his own party. He is still underwater in terms of likeability, while Elizabeth Colbert is viewed positively by a majority of voters. While Republicans are unlikely to votes in large numbers for the Democratic candidate, many may stay home rather than vote for someone they deem as morally questionable.

The final PPP poll released before the election shows Sanford accomplishing two key goals. First, the number of likely Republican voters has increased. In this poll, Romney voters outnumbered Obama voters by 13 percent. The previous PPP poll only found five percent more Romney voters than Obama voters. The other key for Sanford is to define Colbert Busch as a liberal. The PPP finding that 47% of likely voters now believe the Democratic candidate is too liberal is positive news for Sanford.

Overall, momentum is moving in Sanford’s direction. Campaign appearances by Nikki Haley, Lindsey Graham, and Tim Scott have helped consolidate Republican support, while voters now tend to see Colbert Busch in a more partisan light. While the race is close, it has yet to be determined if these factors can offset Sanford’s significant likeability deficit.

Weekly public opinion wrap 5/5/13

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Presidential approval

Rasmussen – This week the President reached lows not seen since last August. He rebounded at the end of the week to finish with 50% approval and (-10) in the index.

Gallup – The President stayed even as his approval hung right around the 50% mark throughout the week.

Quinnipiac – The President’s approval rating dropped a point to 48%, which is still up a couple of points from Quinniacs February and March survey. Democrats and Republicans are pretty evenly split in opposite directions while Independents disapprove of President Obama’s job performance by a six point margin.

  • Obama on the economy 41/53 (40/55)
  • Obama on foreign policy 47/43 (47/44)
  • Obama on immigration 40/50
  • Obama on guns 41/50
  • Satisfied/Dissatisfied with the direction of the country 27/72 (30/69)
  • Republicans in Congress 24/67 (19/71)
  • Democrats in Congress 31/60 (34/59)
  • Better on the economy – Republicans 40, Democrats 38
  • Better on healthcare – Democrats 43, Republicans 38
  • Better on Immigration – Democrats 39, Republicans 38
  • Better on gun policy – Republicans 42, Democrats 38
  • Better on taxes – Republicans 43, Democrats 39

CBS/NYT- The President’s approval/disapproval among all respondents was 47/45, which is three point improvement for him over last month’s poll.

  • Impressions of Islam – Favorable 21, Unfavorable 38
  • Islam more/same amount or less violent – 43/39
  • More public surveillance – Good idea 78, Bad idea 16

Massachusetts Senate

Emerson – Markey 42, Gomez 36

  • Markey favorability – 48/37
  • Gomez favorability – 45/25
  • Independents – Gomez 46, Markey 24

PPP (D)

  • Markey favorability – 44/41
  • Gomez favorability – 41/27
  • Independents – Gomez 47, Markey 31

Generic ballot 

Rasmussen– Democrats 41, Republicans 39. Trend R+2.
Quinnipiac - Democrats 41, Republicans 37. Trend R +4

Mid-week politics update 5/1/2013

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News

Markey v. Gomez for Massachusetts Senate
RNC plans 20 million dollar layout for new data platform
Republicans starting to rally around Mark Sanford in South Carolina
Gun control groups put full-court press on Kelly Ayotte
Paul Ryan steps in to immigration fray

Opinion

Joe Battenfield (Boston Globe) – Gomez is the perfect Massachusetts Republican
Nate Silver (New York Times)- Republicans may escape gun retribution at the polls in 2014
Alexandra Jaffe (The Hill) - What the GOP must do to win in Massachusetts
George Will – Obama’s caution in Syria is justified

Polls

Presidential Approval

Rasmussen – Approve 49, Disapprove 49
Gallup – Approve 50, Disapprove 44
CBS – Approve 47, Disapprove 45
Quinnipiac – Approve 48, Disapprove 45

Generic Ballot

Rasmussen Reports – Republicans 40, Democrats 39
Quinnipiac – Democrats 41, Republicans 37

Weekly Public Opinion Wrap 4/28/13

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Presidential approval

Rasmussen – The President’s uptick from last week disappeared as he hit a post-election low of (-15) on the index (strongly approve minus strongly disapprove). For the week, the President averaged 49% approval while spending six of seven days with double digit negatives on the index.

Gallup – The President continued his momentum from last week finishing with an average approval of 51%.

National Journal – The President’s approval rating dropped to 46%, which was a significant drop from the his 54% approval in National Journal’s November poll. The poll focused on the middle class and found that 45% of those who self-identified as middle class approved of the President’s job performance while 50% disapproved.

  • Trust for economic solutions – Obama 41/ Republicans 33 (down from 48/32 in November)
  • Economy will improve/worsen over the next 12 months 34/35 (44/31 in November)
  • Obama’s economic policies helped/hurt the middle class – 36/45
  • Republican elected officials’ economic policies helped/hurt the middle class – 17/43

Fox News - The President’s approval/disapproval among all respondents was 47/45, which is consistent with Fox’s other post-election surveys.

  • Economy 44/51 (42/55)
  • Guns 39/56
  • Immigration 39/51

South Carolina CD-1 special election (PPP) - Colbert Busch (D) 50, Sanford (R) 41

New Jersey Governor (Quinnipiac) - Christie 58, Buono 26

Generic ballot (Rasmussen) – Democrats 41, Republicans 39. Trend R+2.