Projection – Republicans 52, Democrats 48
Current Senate make-up– Democrat 55 (including 2 independents), Republican 45.
Seats not up for re-election – Democrat 34, Republican 30.
Safe Democrat (6)– Delaware, Hawaii*, Illinois*, Massachusetts*, New Jersey*, Rhode Island*
Lean Democrat (5)– Minnesota*, Oregon*, Michigan, New Mexico*, Virginia*,
Slight Lean Democrat (3)– Alaska, New Hampshire*, North Carolina*
Slight Lean Republican (5) – Colorado*, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana*, Georgia,
Lean Republican (5) – Arkansas, Kentucky, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia
Safe Republican (12)– Alabama*, Idaho*, Maine, Mississippi*, Nebraska, Oklahoma (2), South Carolina (2)*, Tennessee*, Texas*, Wyoming*
*Denotes incumbent is running
Alaska – Two polls show Democratic incumbent Mark Begich with a significant lead while the rest show Republican Dan Sullivan with a small lead. Alaska’s polling trend of undercounting Republicans may mean Sullivan wins big, but Begich’s ground game is impressive and should carry him across the line.
Iowa – If it were not for Ann Selzer’s well regarded poll showing Joni Ernst up seven, Democrats would be claiming momentum going into Election Day. That said, we are trusting Selzer’s poll.
Arkansas – Tom Cotton has finally put this one away.
Georgia – After surging past Republican David Perdue in mid-October, Democrat Michelle Nunn will now be lucky to force a run-off.
New Hampshire – Scott Brown has a chance to win if a national tide emerges for Republicans. This is a better chance than he had a month ago.
North Carolina – Early voting has looked very good for Kay Hagan, but Tillis keeps creeping up in the polls.
Virginia – Ed Gillespie is finally making his move. It’s too little too late, but if Gillespie only loses by five or less it might indicate a GOP wave.
Races most likely to change parties:
1. Montana (95%) Polls, candidate, environment, and terrain favor GOP.
2. West Virginia (95%) Polls, candidate, environment, and terrain favor GOP.
3. South Dakota (90%) Polls, environment, and terrain favor GOP.
4. Arkansas (85%) Terrain and environment favor GOP. Solid Democratic incumbent.
5. Louisiana (70%) Terrain and environment favor GOP. Will be a December run-off.
6. Colorado (65%) Environment favors GOP. Mediocre Democratic incumbent, strong Republican challenger.
7. Iowa (55%) Republicans got their candidate. Terrain slightly favors Democrats, while environment slightly favors Republicans.
8. Alaska (45%) Terrain and environment favors Republicans,. Solid Democratic incumbent, bland Republican challenger.
9. Kansas (45%) Terrain favors GOP. State environment favors the Independent. Candidates both have vulnerabilities.
10. North Carolina (45%) Terrain and environment slightly favor GOP. Mediocre Democratic incumbent, fractured GOP. Republican candidate has high unfavorables.
11. New Hampshire (40%) Terrain and candidates favors Democrats.
12. Georgia (30%) Terrain and environment favor GOP. Solid Democratic candidate performing well in polls, but unlikely to win run-off.
13. Kentucky (15%) Terrain and environment favor GOP.
14. Virginia (5%) Terrain and candidates favors Democrats.