Thanks to the folks at Real Clear Politics we were able to go back four years and look at the state of the race just before the conventions in 2008. The Obama/McCain polling closely mirrors the current Obama/Romney polling. Certainly, Lehman Brothers and the financial meltdown played a large role in the results as things went south for McCain in mid-September. It will be interesting to see whether or not a similar breaking point appears in the September of 2012.
Tracking polls:
Rasmussen – Obama and McCain tied at 46.
Gallup – McCain 46, Obama 44.
National media polls:
CNN(RV) – Obama and McCain tied at 47
Hotline/FD(RV) – Obama 44, McCain 40
USA Today Gallup(LV) – Obama 48, McCain 45
ABC/Washington Post(LV) – Obama 49, Romney 45
Florida: McCain had a consistent lead. Led in all six pre-convention polls.
Ohio: Summer polling split evenly. Pure toss-up.
Virginia: Polling evenly split. Pure toss-up.
Colorado: Obama led over June and July, but August polling was pretty evenly.
Nevada: Very small McCain edge.
New Hampshire: Not much August polling, but Obama appeared to have an edge.
Wisconsin: The last poll in the race showing McCain with a lead was 5/5/2008.
Michigan: Obama with fairly small, but consistent lead.
North Carolina: McCain with consistent lead. Obama would not take first lead until 9/23/2008 Rasmussen poll.
Iowa: Solid Obama lead. From RCP data, McCain never led.
Indiana: McCain held a solid lead.