Analysis

Since incumbent Ben Nelson announced his retirement, Republicans have viewed Nebraska as one of their best chances to pickup a Democratic seat. All roads to the Senate majority go through Nebraska for the GOP. Nebraska State Senator Deb Fischer, with the backing of tea party groups, upset two experienced opponents in the Republican primary. Her opponent, Bob Kerrey, is a Medal of Honor winner who served Nebraska as Governor and Senator.

While many Republican leaders worried that Nebraska primary voters chose another Sharon Angle, Ms. Fischer’s post-primary poll numbers showed her in a strong position. Mr. Kerrey had a stellar reputation within the state during his tenure as Governor and Senator, but his time as President of the New School in Manhattan has left him open to carpetbagging attacks. Kerrey has so far succeeded in out-raising Fischer as well as significantly outpacing her in social media. We expect Mr. Kerrey to run a strong campaign, but in the absence of a major gaffe from Fischer, it is unlikely that he will be able to defeat her in such an unfavorable political state for a Democrat. Edge Fischer

Measurables

Kerrey:
Facebook – 11, 572 likes
Twitter – 2,566
Cash-on-hand - $1,280,836

Fischer:
Facebook – 5,380 likes
Twitter – 1,170 Followers
Cash-on-hand – $1,106,322

Polls:
No recent polling

Recent news stories:
Washington Post- Bob Kerrey faces steep odds.

Campaign Ads:
Deb Fischer, Nebraska Senator
Bob Kerrey, “Mess”

Up next: Missouri – Claire McCaskill* (D) v. Todd Akin (R)