Analysis

This was a race Republicans were supposed to win. Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill is the epitome of an unpopular incumbent and trailed all of her potential GOP challengers during the Republican primary campaign. Congressman Todd Akin (St. Louis) was considered the weakest of the Republican field, but still led McCaskill by a decent margin in post primary polls. Then Akin uttered the words “legitimate rape” and the race was turned on its head.

Despite pleas from his own party to get out of the race, Akin refused. McCaskill jumped out to a near double digit lead in the wake of Akin’s comment, but recent polling shows Akin making a race of it once again. This will certainly be a choice of the lesser of two evil for Missourians on Election Day. McCaskill has significantly outraised Akin and holds a nearly 7-1 cash-on-hand advantage. While McCaskill should be favored in the wake of Akin’s comments, voters seems so entrenched against McCaskill that Akin may still eke out a victory. Toss-up

Measurables

McCaskill:
Facebook – 23, 974 likes
Twitter – 78,107 followers
Cash-on-hand - $3,465,846

Akin:
Facebook – 29,536 likes
Twitter – 5,705 followers
Cash-on-hand – $531,559

Polls:
McCaskill 49, Akin 43
McCaskill 45, Akin 44
McCaskill 50, Akin 41

Recent news stories:
GOP drops Akin

Campaign Ads:
Claire McCaskill – “From Here”
Todd Akin – “Wrong Way Claire”