Wednesday, September 19, 2012 was a terrible day for the Republicans in public opinion polling. While Obama had been seeing his convention bounce slip away, yesterday’s round of polling solidified him as the favorite.
The CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polls that were released in the morning gave Obama a four point lead in Virginia and a six point lead in Wisconsin. Their poll in Colorado had him up by one, which reversed an earlier five point Romney lead. Down-ballot polling showed significant erosion for the Republican Senate candidates in these states as well. Tim Kaine was staked to his first significant lead and Tammy Baldwin who had been trailing Tommy Thompson pulled into a 47-47 tie.
Later in the day Fox News released a set of polls that was even worse for the Romney campaign. The Republican candidate trailed by seven points in Ohio and Virigina, and five points in Florida. Fox also found solid leads for the Democratic Senate candidates in all three states.
The bad polls would keep coming for the GOP throughout the day. Multiple polls were now showing Scott Brown behind in Massachusetts, and Marquette University had a shock poll with Tammy Baldwin up by nine over Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin. The right leaning, We Ask America, also polled Barack Obama up by three in Virginia, making three polls in one day showing the President leading in a must win state for Mitt Romney.
For Republicans there was little comfort outside of the tracking polls, which showed their candidate running dead-even. The Associated Press also released a poll showing the race a dead heat.
While there is still time to turn the race around, yesterday’s round of polling may be the day that sticks out as the day the race went from a toss-up to an expectation that President Obama will be re-elected.