Analysis

The race in Ohio is typical of many races around the country, including the race for President. Voters are not eager to re-elect the incumbent, but are also not impressed by the Republican challenger. A September PPP poll put Brown’s approval at 42%. Fortunately for Brown, only 33% of likely voters in that same poll had a favorable opinion of Mandel.

Sherrod Brown, who was first elected to Congress in 1992, is noticeablly more liberal than the state he serves. Despite the ideological difference, Brown has been able to remain competitive by tapping into populist economic issues important to Ohioans such as free trade and outsourcing. Brown has also benefitted from the Democratic led auto-bailout, which he argues has kept the Ohio economy afloat. Josh Mandel’s primary focus has been attacking Sherrod Brown as a career politician and stressing fiscal responsibilty. Mandel is trying to counter the narrative that Democratic politicians are responsible for the state’s economic turnaround.

Sherrod Brown has a solid lead in the polls, but still falls below 50% in the Real Clear Politics Average. No poll in the RCP average has shown Mandel with a lead, although he did pull into a tie a number of times. During the entire RCP tracking period Mandel has only polled over 45% once.  Leans Brown (D)

Measurables

Brown:
Facebook – 52, 972 likes
Twitter – 29, 677 followers (joint)
Cash-on-hand - $6,496,215

Mandel:
Facebook – 11,976 likes
Twitter – 7,512 followers (joint)
Cash-on-hand – $4,930,230

Polls:
Brown 50, Mandel 40
Brown 44, Mandel 43
Brown 53, Mandel 41
Brown 47, Mandel 40
Brown 52, Mandel 45

Recent news stories:
Brown leads Mandel

Campaign Ads:
Sherrod Brown – “Bluffton”
Josh Mandel – “Accountable”