When pollsters run battleground state polls they sample states that will not actually be needed for either candidate to achieve 270 electoral votes. Most battleground polls include states like North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania and in some cases New Mexico. These states may be close, but they will only fall after the 270 threshold has been crossed.
Our victory state poll average will track the states that may put either candidate over the magic number. We will also track the averages in each candidate’s platform states, which are the states the candidates will need to springboard over 270. Our poll average will be generated from the Real Clear Politics state averages and updated every other day.