Obama 290, Romney 248
Key states lean Obama:
Nevada (6) – Romney has not lead in even one poll during the campaign. As Democrats are performing well in early voting and generally outpoll on Election Day I expect a five to six point Obama win.
Key states lean Romney:
North Carolina (15) – The canary in the coal mine. Polls close at 7:30. If the state is called almost immediately for Romney it could be a good night for the GOP. If it takes hours not minutes to call, Obama should cruise to re-election.
Virginia (13) – Must win for Romney. State party is well organized and will turnout the vote. Romney should hold on in one of the closest races of the election. Projected Romney win of one half a point.
Ohio (18) – Polls have shown Obama with a consistent two to three point lead. Not a single poll in the RCP average has Romney ahead. However, a slight increase in GOP turnout and a slight decrease in Democratic turnout could be enough to give Romney a narrow edge. As it stands, an Obama victory margin of three points sounds about right.
New Hampshire (4) – Difficult state too call. Polling momentum has bounced around with no clear trend. According to the polls President Obama should win by two points, but a two point win by Governor Romney is certainly a possibility.
Obama Strong 186 – California (55) , Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), D.C. (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12).
Romney Strong 170- Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11) Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3).