Obama 290, Romney 248
Key states lean Obama:
Nevada (6) – Romney has not lead in even one poll during the campaign. As Democrats are performing well in early voting and generally outpoll on Election Day I expect a five to six point Obama win.
Wisconsin (10) – Polling averages have shown Obama up by nearly five points. The Walker GOTV machine should help, but Obama will likely win Wisconsin by three or four points.
Pennsylvania (20) – Romney is coming close. Very close. However, the Democratic GOTV effort should insulate Obama from any last minute Romney momentum. Pennsylvania goes Obama by six.
Key states lean Romney:
North Carolina (15) – The canary in the coal mine. Polls close at 7:30. If the state is called almost immediately for Romney it could be a good night for the GOP. If it takes hours not minutes to call, Obama should cruise to re-election.
Florida (29) – The three major Florida newspaper polls have had Romney up by five or more points. Expect Romney to win by four.
Virginia (13) – Must win for Romney. State party is well organized and will turnout the vote. Romney should hold on in one of the closest races of the election. Projected Romney win of one half a point.
Decision states
Colorado (9) – President Obama has erased a small Romney lead and now holds a small lead of his own. State is trending slightly Obama.
Ohio (18) – Polls have shown Obama with a consistent two to three point lead. Not a single poll in the RCP average has Romney ahead. However, a slight increase in GOP turnout and a slight decrease in Democratic turnout could be enough to give Romney a narrow edge. As it stands, an Obama victory margin of three points sounds about right.
Iowa (6) – Polls have been moving slightly in Romney’s direction. Iowa may have passed Colorado and New Hampshire as his best Ohio +1 opportunity.
New Hampshire (4) – Difficult state too call. Polling momentum has bounced around with no clear trend. According to the polls President Obama should win by two points, but a two point win by Governor Romney is certainly a possibility.
Obama Strong 186 – California (55) , Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), D.C. (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12).
Obama Lean 104- Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10).
Romney Lean 78- Arizona (11), Florida (29), Missouri (10), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13).
Romney Strong 170- Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11) Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3).