While many Republicans worried that Mitt Romney would lose to Barack Obama, no one imagined that he would lose to John McCain as well. This election was not a matter of demographics, Bain, a war on women, or even Hurricane Sandy.  This election was simply a matter of showing up and casting a ballot. Republicans failed to do so and Obama cruised to a second term.

The post-election numbers do not look good for the Obama campaign. Obama’s campaign gurus David Axelrod and David Plouffe must be absolutely confounded. How did President Obama lose seven millions total votes from 2008 to 2012? What happened to the four million Democrats who voted in 2008 and were nowhere to be found in 2012?

The county breakdown for Democrats reinforces their problem on Election Day. In battleground Virginia’s Fairfax County, Obama saw nearly 50,000 of his former voters disappear. The Democratic stronghold in Ohio, Cuyahoga County, bled 25,000 Obama votes.

The demographic turnout was decent for Democrats, but certainly not impressive in terms of raw votes. Exit polls point to slightly fewer African Americans voting – and African Americans moved slightly towards the Republican candidate. The increase in Latino vote helped, but it was much more pronounced due to an overall decrease in turnout. This is acceptable news for the Obama campaign, but certainly not the kind of changing electorate pundits are hyping.

Looking at the Obama raw vote numbers on the national, state, and county levels it would appear that Mitt Romney should be poised to become the next President of the United States. With only a few votes left to be counted, Obama is still short of George W. Bush’s total from 2004.

Unfortunately for Governor Romney, Republicans decided this would be a good time to sit out an election. The Republican share of the electorate held steady at a weak 32%. Given the turnout decrease, it now appears that three million Republicans who voted in 2008 – a year considered by many to be the nadir of Republican turnout – chose not to vote in 2012. Keep in mind, three hundred thousands total votes are all that separates Romney from Obama in Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and New Hampshire.

Of the three million Republicans who stayed home, many appear to be Evangelical Christians. The exit polls matched with 2012 turnout indicate that roughly two million Evangelical Christians who voted in 2008 did not vote in 2012 (and Evangelicals only had lukewarm feelings towards John McCain).

While the exit polls provide the math behind the Republican crash, anecdotes tell the story as well. I have heard stories of folks with Romney yard signs who for some reason did not vote. I know many Republicans are familiar with the family member who made the loud uncomfortable anti-Obama comments at the family get together, yet had something better to do on Election Day.

While some may fault the Romney campaign for their poor turnout effort, both the internal Romney numbers and public polls show that unlike McCain’s campaign, Romney managed to match Obama in terms of voter contacts.  Details are still emerging about the disastrous project Orca. I know from firsthand experience that this was an incredibly poor system. Yes, Election Day GOTV is part of a campaign’s fundamentals, but is not the voter also responsible for doing their civic duty?

The day after the election Rush Limbaugh claimed that there were too many American’s voting for Santa Claus. In his analysis, America may have reached a tipping point where the takers outnumber the givers at the polls. I am not sure if it will console Rush, but that was not the case.  Mitt Romney’s 53% just stayed home on Election Day.